As world leaders and delegates prepare for the Conference of the Parties (COP28) in the UAE, there’s an undeniable sense of urgency. The impending climate catastrophe is a fast-approaching reality, even though we now possess a far deeper understanding of the science and impacts of climate change compared to three decades ago.
Since COP21 in 2015, the subsequent COP conferences have primarily concentrated on the pragmatic execution of the Paris Agreement. This agreement articulates three fundamental goals with the aim of limiting the global average temperature increase to ‘well below’ 2°C above pre-industrial levels while striving to keep it within 1.5°C. These three objectives encompass adapting to the consequences of climate change, bolstering resilience, and guaranteeing the financial resources required to support a path that leads to decreased greenhouse gas emissions and the advancement of sustainable development in the future. (1)
With COP28 just days away, the global community is taking stock of the progress made during COP27 and the pivotal achievements required in the upcoming conference to advance climate action. COP28 is poised to build upon both the successes and shortcomings of its predecessors, charting a course towards renewed ambition for accelerating worldwide climate action. This includes a focus on emissions reduction, heightened adaptation efforts, and increased financial support.
In this context, the aspiration for COP28 to make substantial headway in terms of climate action hinges on addressing three pivotal issues that could shape future international collaboration in the battle against climate change. First, concluding the agreement related to The Loss and Damage Fund. Second, completing the first global stocktake (GST) to evaluate global progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. Third, expediting the transition to net-zero emissions by phasing out fossil fuels, while considering the specific circumstances of each country.
The Loss and Damage Fund:
The primary challenge that looms large is the imperative to use the Dubai conference as a platform to finalize an agreement regarding the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund. Although the concept of such a fund had been acknowledged in previous conferences, it was only fully realized during COP27. The initial goal was to provide technical assistance to developing nations in addressing the loss and damage caused by climate change, with the intention of making it operational by COP28. Regrettably, consensus has yet to be reached on a viable proposal for financing and managing this fund. Negotiations currently stand on the precipice of failure. However, there remains a last opportunity this week for members to come together and agree on a practical plan for the fund. A crucial meeting is scheduled for November 3-4 in Abu Dhabi, where the fate of this essential initiative hangs in the balance. It is imperative that stakeholders find common ground to ensure the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund and take a significant step towards mitigating the climate crisis.
The first global stocktake (GST):
The secondary focus at COP28 lies in the results of the first global stocktake (GST), which serves as a roadmap to expedite climate action. COP28 carries substantial significance for various reasons, with a critical emphasis on the culmination of the inaugural global stocktake. This pivotal procedure takes place every five years and comprises three consecutive phases that progressively reinforce one another.
The initial phase commenced at COP26 in 2021, focusing on the comprehensive collection of data and insights related to climate change and climate action. Stakeholders, including governments, research institutions, and civil society organizations, all contributed to this phase, forming a foundational basis for the GST.
The second phase concluded with the release of a synthesis report in September 2023. This report offers a compilation of critical findings and recommendations derived from the second technical phase. It underscores the remarkable progress achieved since the inception of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) three decades ago. Simultaneously, it highlights the residual challenges and underlines the need to recalibrate efforts for effective implementation.
The third phase, set to reach its culmination at COP28, encompasses a series of high-level events and discussions among Parties. Of particular significance is the technical dialogue within the GST. This dialogue draws from the inputs received throughout the entire process and the discussions held during each of the three technical dialogue phases. It serves as the primary mechanism for assessing global progress toward the objectives and aims of the Paris Agreement. In essence, the GST’s technical dialogue is the primary means by which the world’s advancement under the Paris Agreement is evaluated. It identifies key areas necessitating further action, addressing existing gaps, and tackling challenges and barriers hindering the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement. (2)
The Just transition to net-zero emissions:
Fossil fuels, encompassing coal, oil, and natural gas, have served as the cornerstone of global energy production for more than a century. While they have been instrumental in powering economic growth, industrialization, and technological advancements, their usage has exacted a significant toll on our environment and human health. The imperative of phasing out fossil fuels has become increasingly apparent in our quest for a sustainable and habitable future. COP28 should emphasize the importance of transitioning away from fossil fuels, drawing attention to their detrimental impacts on climate change and the pressing need for renewable energy alternatives.
During COP26 in Glasgow, participating nations took the crucial step of incorporating a reference to all forms of fossil fuels in their discussions. This decision marked a commitment to intensify endeavors aimed at reducing coal power and eliminating inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Moreover, the plan outlined a call for countries to formulate long-term strategies for achieving a just transition to net-zero emissions, with a deadline set no later than COP27. Countries were also encouraged to regularly update these strategies. However, in the past year, only 11 new strategies have been introduced, bringing the total to a mere 54. As a response, the COP27 decision urges the remaining parties to communicate their long-term strategies by COP28. (3)
While it’s true that this reference did not find its way into the formal decision text, it is indicative of mounting pressure on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to confront this critical issue. Furthermore, despite the evident gap between the current national climate plans and the measures required to restrict global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the outcomes from COP27 only showcased modest, incremental progress in emissions reduction. Consequently, it is highly probable that the phasing out of fossil fuels will take center stage in the negotiations at COP28. This represents a significant shift in focus and an acknowledgment of the urgency required to address the climate crisis.
Additionally, COP28 should function as a platform where governments, industries, and individuals unite to promote the advancement of innovative technologies and research within the realm of renewable energy. This pursuit aims to yield more efficient and sustainable solutions. Furthermore, COP28 should emphasize the pressing need to transition away from unsustainable energy sources and advocate for the adoption of renewable alternatives. However, it is imperative to underscore that collaboration among diverse stakeholders is a prerequisite for expediting this transition and nurturing technological progress, which will play a pivotal role in shaping a cleaner and more equitable energy future.
Conclusion:
COP28 arrives at a pivotal moment in the global effort to combat climate change. The relentless shattering of temperature records and the unprecedented occurrences of wildfires, floods, storms, and droughts across the world have underlined the urgent need for action. Thus, COP28 represents a critical opportunity for nations to come together and forge groundbreaking agreements aimed at substantial emissions reduction.
The previous COP27 climate summit in Egypt did witness a breakthrough in assisting vulnerable nations in dealing with the losses and damages resulting from climate change impacts. However, it was accompanied by disappointments, as it failed to introduce significant new measures for emissions reduction. As a result, the commitments made at COP28 must yield tangible results across all negotiation areas, effectively increasing actions and ambitions aligned with the world’s aspirations for the well-being of future generations. The challenges are immense, but they underscore the significance of this moment in the history of international climate action.